Last time, I took a look at how the teams in Allsvenskan have performed this first part of the 2018 season leading up to the World Cup break. As I promised then, I will now look closer at individual player performances. Before we begin though, it is important to underline that Stratagem’s data is a bit different than other sources, so please read the beginning of this post to be able to better understand the stuff I’m about to show.
Note: In some of the scatter plots below I’ve excluded what I deem to be outliers due to the small sample size.
Goalscoring
Scoring 4 goals against Sirius in the last match before the break, Djurgården’s Tino Kadewere tops the league in non-penalty goals at 8, overperforming his second place xG of 5.5. He has also gotten into most chances so far, showing some great form.
Another strong performance comes from Hammarby’s Pa Dibba, the speedy forward being one of the main reasons behind their attacking success. He leads the league in xG at almost 6 to go with his 7 non-penalty goals, but what really makes him stand out is his time-weighted performance, dominating with over 1 goal and 0.92 xG per 90 minutes played.
Nikola Đurđić has been the other focal point in Hammarby’s attack and the Serbian has been just what Hammarby needed. Besides goals, he has also brought grit and a mentality which has maybe been missing in Hammarby.
Romain Gall has impressed with 5 goals for Sundsvall, and will likely be on the radar of the bigger clubs for the upcoming transfer window. Interestingly, IFK Göteborg’s Giorgi Kharaishvili leads the league in Chances per 90 minutes.
Plotting goals and xG we see just how good Dibba has been so far, and also that compared to last season, a lot of players are running really hot and overperforming their xG numbers. There’s a sample size problem here of course, as we’ve only seen 10-12 matches per team but it will be interesting to see if it continues the same way after the summer break.
Looking at Player Attacking Styles we see how Dibba has been combining a lot of chances with a high average quality. Moberg-Karlsson, Paulinho and Kharaishvili have similiar chances per 90, but of considerably lower quality and hence have scored less goals. Inversely, Alhassan Kamara, Dino Islamovic, Carlos Strandberg and Đurđić have ended up in chances of roughly equal quality as Dibba, but less often, again having scored less goals. From the previous plot we see that Kamara and Strandberg also have efficiency problems compared to their xG but if they can keep their high average chance quality they should get the goalscoring running again soon, as they’re both usually very strong in front of goal.
Chance Creation
The creators behind the chances then? Well, Örebro’s Nahir Besara is as usual up there when it comes to assists, as is Ken Sema of Östersund. Hammarby’s Jiloan Hamad has had a strong season so far as well, being one of the main driving forces behind Hammarby’s attack. Tino Kadewere shows his versatility by producing 5 assists to add to his goals, though it is worth mentioning that two of these are rebounded shots. Another attacker showing some creativity is Đurđić who’ve created over 3 xA so far.
Adjusted for minutes played we see that old boy Tobias Hysén is still important to IFK Göteborg’s chance creation, and that Östersund’s Hosam Aiesh has created most xA per 90 at about 0.5. The small sample size sees Brommapojkarna’s Marko Nikolic make the list with his 2 assists from 340 minutes played.
Häcken’s Daleho Irandust is one of the most frequent creators, leading the league in Chances Created per 90, ahead of Arnor Traustason and Alexander Jakobsen of Malmö and Norrköping, respectively.
Plotting actual and expected assists, we again see a lot of overperformance which is of course linked to what we saw with the goals earlier. Malmö’s Markus Rosenberg has been one of the most notorious under-performers against xG in my models for years, but here he interestingly shows up underperforming xA instead. This of course has a lot to do with the sample size, but also indicating that he has switched role in Malmö’s attack a bit, and that his teammates haven’t been that clinical when he’s set them up with chances.
Looking at how the players create chances, we see how some like Irandust, Jakobsen and Traustason focus on volume, while Đurđić, Kalmar’s Måns Söderqvist and Nahir Bahoui of AIK create chances less often, but of a higher quality. As with goals, the strongest producers like Besara, Hamad, Kadewere and Sema manage to combine both aspects when setting up their teammates. AIK’s Rasmus Lindkvist and IFK Göteborg’s Emil Salomonsson are the only defenders showing up here, both operating as wing backs in front of a 3-back line.
Attacking Production
Tino Kadewere dominates when it comes to raw numbers, leading the league in G+A, xG+A and Chance Production, but drops a bit when taking playing time into consideration as Djurgården’s lack of options up front has seen him play a lot of minutes.
Dibba and Đurđić again show up as strong producers, and Sundsvall’s Linus Hallenius also deserves a mention being third in G+A per 90 and fifth in xG+A per 90. Norrköping’s young icelander Arnór Sigurdsson has also impressed with over 0.6 xG+A per 90, as has AIK’s Anton Salétros, whose fine performance and 0.84 G+A per 90 earned him a move to Rostov in the Russian league.
Naturally we see a lot of overperformance when combining goals and assists as well, and we should expect to see some of these players’ output to normalize over the season. Who that will be is of course a lot down to chance itself.
Plotting xG and xA we can get a glimpse of the production style of players. Dibba is of course the typical striker with a lot of xG but little xA created, while Aiesh seem to be the direct opposite. A strong group of players lead by Đurđić combine both execution and creation.
The small sample size is of course a problem and could be one of the reasons we see no real one-sided ‘role players’ besides Aiesh and Dibba yet. Sema, Traustason, Irandust and others should all belong to the more creative group but have for various reasons failed to create enough xA for it to show yet. On the other side of the scale, we know that Kamara, Strandberg and Kalle Holmberg are all strong strikers heavily focused on being at the business end of chances just like Dibba, but they’ve struggled a bit so far. It will be interesting to see how things develop over the season.
Player Profiles
I mentioned Tino Kadewere back in 2016, at the very end of this post. Since then, he’s missed much of 2017 to injuries and when fit struggled to get back to form. One of the reason for this is him having to adopt to a new role as the sole striker up front as goalscorer after goalscorer have left Djurgården. His display has been sometimes puzzling this season as he at least early on mixed insane misses and poor touches with equally jaw-dropping dribbles and smart play. As time has progressed though he’s looked better and better, being instrumental in Djurgården’s Swedish Cup win with 4 goals in 7 matches, to add to his 8 in Allsvenskan. Previously used as more of a creative support attacker he has now evolved into a centre forward with impressive hold up play and a presence in the box, which is evident from his very good chance locations. Add his creative side and it’s no wonder he’s rumoured to be on the radar of clubs abroad.
Pa Dibba has impressed as well, and though usually applauded for his speed and counter-attacking skills adding a dimension to Hammarby’s attack, he has some very useful skills poaching in front of goals on crosses and set pieces as well, as can be seen from the 3 high-quality chances close to goal.
Nikola Đurđić’s return to Allsvenskan (10 goals in 11 matches for Helsingborg in 2012 and 5 in 12 for Malmö in 2015) is another reason for Hammarby’s success so far. Overperforming his xG a bit, he has still gotten into some very good chances and brings a lot of overall quality as well, creating high quality chances for his teammates. As mentioned he has also brought in a kind of grit and mentality that I think has been missing in Hammarby for quite some time.
Sundsvall’s Romain Gall has been one of the most in-form players so far and could be on his way to a bigger club soon. As can be seen from the above plot though, his 5 goals is a bit flattering compared to his xG, but if he can get the right coaching and learn to be a bit more selective when it comes to chance locations, I think he could grow into a very strong winger.
Just like last season, Nahir Besara has been the driving force behind Örebro’s attack. Possibly limited a bit by Axel Kjäll’s more cautious approach, he has still had an impressive spring. Combining some good quality chances inside the box with efficient long-range shoot and strong passing foot, it’s tempting to think about what he could do at a bigger club.
Daleho Irandust is Allsvenskan’s most frequent creator, third in raw quantity and leading the league in chances created per 90, but what good does that do when his teammates simply refuse to score? Not super high average chance quality though but given time and his undeniable talent, assist will come.
Jiloan Hamad is the main creator in Hammarby’s midfield, being the driving force behind much of their attack. He can score as well and his strong season so far saw him involved in the discussions for Sweden’s World Cup squad, though he was eventually left out.
Another strong creator who was in contention for the Swedish squad is Ken Sema. Though not yet as impressive as last season, he has been creating chances for Östersund this spring and his strong performance in the Europa League could very well earn him a move abroad soon as quite a few players could be leaving the club after Graham Potter’s departure.
Arguably one of the best strikers in the league, Carlos Strandberg has, just like all of Malmö, struggled so far. Still getting into great chances and scoring goals, he is lacking a bit in volume though and will need to get up to speed and improve a lot if Malmö are to climb the table after the summer break. He has a great left foot and should shoot more, in my opinion.
Left wing-back Rasmus Lindkvist has been a big part of AIK’s attack with his 4 assists and 12 chances created so far. Interestingly, he doesn’t use his wide position to whip in crosses, instead using his good pace and passing foot to combine his way into the box where he sets up his teammates in front of goal, which seems to work out quite well for him.
If you want to see any more Player Chance/Creation Maps, just let me know on Twitter.
This article was written with the aid of StrataData, which is property of Stratagem Technologies. StrataData powers the StrataBet Sports Trading Platform, in addition to StrataBet Premium Recommendations.
Though sharing honors as the league top scorer at 14 with Magnus Eriksson, the moral winner is Norrköping’s Kalle Holmberg with 13 open play goals while 5 of Eriksson’s goals came from penalties. Eriksson’s 9 open play goals is still very impressive though, seeing him finish joint second together with a group of strong goalscorers, all forwards – while Eriksson has mainly been used in midfield in Özcan Melkemichel’s Djurgården.
Comparing goals and xG we see that Stefanelli’s output isn’t that much better than expected, he could very well be the real deal. Another interesting point is that Malmö’s captain Markus Rosenberg continues to underperform against xG.
Looking at how many chances players create and the average quality of those chances should give us at least some sense of their preferred attacking styles. We see here how most strong attacking players tend to cluster around an area of compromise between quality and quantity. In this group, Viktor Prodell, Johan Bertilsson, Henok Goitom and Mohamed Buya Turay tend to rely more on high quality chances (all above 0.20 xG per chance), while David Moberg-Karlsson and Stefanelli prefer to just rack up chance after chance, the latter with some respectable xG per chance as well.
Elfsborg’s Simon Lundevall provided most assist overall but taking playing time into account, IFK Norrköping’s Niclas Eliasson was Allsvenskan’s main creator this season. Racking up 11 assists in the first half of the season before leaving for Bristol City in the Championship, his departure effectively ended Norrköping’s top 3 ambitions.
Comparing assists and xA we see how Niclas Eliasson has been outperforming his expected output (likely thanks to some effective scoring from Kalle Homberg) while Ken Sema has been underperforming. Lundevall is closer to his expected output.
Just like with the Attacking Styles, Player Chance Creation Styles are mostly clustered with a lot of creative players combining reasonable quality with quantity. Ken Sema, Elias Andersson and Yoshimar Yotún (who left Malmö for the MLS in the summer) are the extremes when it comes to creation volume, while Andreas Vindheim has created some very good chances for Malmö.
By combining goals and assists into Attacking Production we see that Besara was the most productive player when it comes to raw numbers, but when factoring in playing time, Stefanelli once again tops the table in both expected and actual output. Prodell has done well considering his playing time, as well as Malmö’s Alexander Jeremejeff who’s second behind Stefanelli in xG+A per 90 minutes.
Looking at actual and expected output, we see how most strong attacking players like Besara, Jebali, Homberg, Eriksson, Hysén and Stefanelli tend to perform close to what we can expected. Eliasson is again overperforming while Rosenberg is doing the opposite. Eric Larsson is worth a special mention here as he has produced some fine numbers for a fullback, with his underperformance coming largely from his teammates in Sundsvall underperforming on the chances he created for them.
Seperating Expected Goals and Expected Assists let us see how the attacking players specialise. Once again we see how this season has really lacked many strong specialist, with only Stefanelli and Sema really standing out on their ends. Most players tend to cluster somewhat here as well, combining creativity with being at the end of chances as well.
As mentioned earlier, Kalle Holmberg was this season’s strongest goalscorer, and from his Chance Map it’s easy to see why: he usually gets into some very good positions just in front of goal, with an average xG of 0.19 per chance. 13 open play goals is strong, but as I’ve also mentioned I think he could’ve done even better had IFK Norrköping’s performance not dropped (and Niclas Eliasson not left).
Operating from Djurgården’s right wing, Magnus Eriksson was another strong goalscorer this season, though a bit more versatile as he also provided a lot of assists for his team. Mostly crosses from the right flank but also two shot rebounds. His Chance Map is a bit different from Holmberg’s with more chances outside the box, which is only natural as he’s after all a midfielder. Though attacking is certainly his main quality, Djurgården will also miss his work ethic, grit and competitiveness now that he’s left for the MLS.
Veteran Tobias Hysén continues to be extremely important to IFK Göteborg’s attack. His Chance Map combines a lot of good chances inside the box with some poorer outside, some of them direct free kick. When it comes to Chance Creation he’s provided some crucial passing inside and into the box, as well as some corners and free kicks.
Örebro’s Nahir Besara was also extremely important to his team’s attack, combining some chances inside the box with a lot of shooting from outside, including one goal from a direct free kick. His creation numbers are boosted by three rebounds who turned into goals, otherwise it’s mostly corners and crosses into the box.
Nicolás Stefanelli arrived at AIK at a crucial time this summer, with the team’s attack struggling during the first half of the season. The Argentinian took some time to adopt but slowly turned into to a real strong presence up front, scoring 9 goals from 14 starts. It will be very interesting indeed to see if he can continue his fine performance come the new season. As a Djurgården supporter, I sure hope not.
Linus Hallenius is an interesting case that’s flown under at least my radar this season. With 7 goals and nearly 10 xG he’s done well for a struggling Sundsvall side that just barely managed to stay up. Most of his chances have been created by Eric Larsson, so it’ll be very interesting to see if Hallenius can continue his fine performance next season with the right back having left for champions Malmö.
Elfsborg’s Simon Lundevall was the assist king this season at 12, with 4 of them coming from corners, curiously with some rather high xA values – 3 of them are above 0.30 xA. Maybe Elfsborg have some corner strong routine going on? Lundevall has also provided some long range passes on the left half of the pitch, which I guess is related to counter-attacking.
Niclas Eliasson’s strong first half of a season earned him a move abroad, and as mentioned earlier IFK Norrköping never really looked the same after that. Overperfoming, sure, but he did create some really good chances for his team with his precise crossing from both flanks.
Ken Sema was another creation monster, racking up some really good chances with an average xA per chance of 0.18. It’s clear to see why, as most of his passes was either directly inside the box, or ending up in it – a direct consequence of Östersund’s heavily passing-oriented style of attack.
Though it stopped at just one season before he chose to end his career, Kim Källström’s long-awaited return to Djurgården was (despite some very inconsistent perfomances) instrumental in returning the team he once won the league with in two consecutive seasons at the start of the millenium, back to the top 3. When he was at his best this season, sitting back in his deep-lying playmaker role he dictated much of Djurgården’s attack with his quarter-back ‘Hail Mary’ style of long passing. Interestingly though, all his assists came from set pieces where he got more time to use his precise left foot.
I mentioned Eric Larsson before and looking at his Chance Creation Map we see clearly how strong a player he is. From his right back position at struggling Sundsvall he produced 52 chances and well over 6 xA – more than most midfielders. Though his teammates only managed to score twice on these chances, with his move to Malmö I expect him to get a lot more assists next season.
Kujovic has just recently signed with Belgian side Gent, leaving reigning champions Norrköping after a couple of highly productive seasons. His goal and xG output this season are on par with last season’s but he’s also doubled his assists per 90 minutes, having been involved in almost a goal per game this season. I don’t know much about Belgian football, but given the right kind of attacking style he may very well score some goals over there.
Häcken’s Paulo De Oliveira, or Paulinho as he’s called, leads the league in assists+goals per 90 with his impressing 1.13 made up of just goals. Having overperformed against xG since his return to Swedish football, Paulinho may very well be the best finisher in the league.
With Malmö struggling to capitalise on their xG last season, Vidar Kjartansson has grown into a very good signing for them. I haven’t seen him played that much, but given his shot profile he looks just like the strong center forward scoring from mostly inside the box they needed to gradually phase out the aging Markus Rosenberg.
Struggling to take a regular spot at Malmö for the last couple of seasons, Pawel Cibicki’s move to newcomers Jönköpings Södra has worked out well for him. With more playing time, he has continued to improve his goal output and given his age he could be on his way to a bigger club abroad soon.
One who has already taken the next step is AIK’s loan Carlos Strandberg, who after struggling at Russian CSKA Moscow returned to Sweden this season. The young and forceful striker continued where he picked up and has been crucial for his club this season. From his shot profile we can see that he favours shooting from the left, mostly due to his powerful left foot. Set to return to Russia soon, Strandberg will make his last game against Malmö this weekend.
Leading the youngest players in xG per 90 is another AIK striker, 16 year old Alexander Isak, who has impressed so far and is supposedly targetted by a number of big European clubs. Yeah, the sample size is small but given his very young age he’s done well and should he continue to improve he could grown into a class player.
Looking at individual players we can se how Sirius’ Stefan Silva is the big overperformer here with his 12 goals almost doubling his xG numbers. Also, Falkenberg seem to have more goalscoring options with three players over 6 goals while Sirius only have Silva.
Here’s last night’s high-scoring game. Being a lifelong Djurgården supporter this was not a pleasant game to watch, and to add to the pain I actually had a bet on the under here. Sigh.
Looking at the games from seasons 2014 and 2013, it seemed there is some truth to the myth. But while it may look like this particular fixture usually end up a high scoring affair, in the other seasons in my database (2011 and 2012), the games ended 2-1 and 1-1 respectively. Furthermore, Djurgården actually only had two players starting in all three games: Kenneth Høie and Emil Bergström. The same goes for Norrköping with only David Mitov Nilsson and Andreas Johansson starting all three games.
Take The Shot 