Allsvenskan 2018 Summer update

Allsvenskan is on a break waiting for the World Cup, and so am I – so why not write a quick recap of the action so far? Well I hadn’t planned on it, but with this first part of the season being far more interesting than what we’ve seen in a long time, I simply couldn’t resist.


The number of matches played are a bit unevenly distributed so far, with Malmö, AIK and Djurgården all having played one extra match each to give room for the European qualifiers later this summer, while Sirius‘ season opener against Sundsvall was postponed due to poor pitch conditions.

The main (and I mean MAIN) narratives so far have been Malmö’s fall from grace and Hammarby‘s surprisingly flying start to the season. A mini narrative this season is also Östersund with their poor start, criminal investigations into chairman Kindberg‘s business and manager of the year for the last two seasons, Graham Potter, leaving to take over Swansea in the Championship.

Title defenders Malmö very disappointingly sit in 10th and are nowhere near their usual standard which has seen them claim the top spot 4 times in the last 5 seasons. Magnus Pehrsson was under a lot of pressure early on and after failing to bounce back after the 3-0 defeat to Djurgården in the Swedish Cup final, he was soon fired.

Hammarby on the other hand got off to a great start, winning 8 and drawing once before finishing with their first defeat of the season (against rivals AIK) and another draw. For a team that finished 9th last season, looked quite poor, sacked their manager and promoted his assistant in a move that looked like a huge gamble, this is surprising even for Allsvenskan. Fair play to Hammarby and Stefan Billborn though, they have undeniably been the best team so far, playing a very entertaining attacking football.

That said, let’s get on with some scatterplots:


Looking at chances we can see that Hammarby spend a lot of time attacking, while at the same time limiting their opponents. Häcken does a good job as well, and Malmö actually don’t look too bad quantity-wise. AIK is a curious case with Rikard Norling as usual having his side focus more on game control than chance dominance, limiting their attack even more than last season. A bottom quartet of Dalkurd, Trelleborg, Sirius and Brommapojkarna can be easily distinguished here, with especially promoted BP looking really poor when it comes to raw chance numbers, facing a whopping 17 chances per match.


Hammarby have been effective in front of goal, which when combined with their many chances of course is a big part of their impressive run so far. Malmö and Häcken on the other hand have seen their good numbers spoiled by some ineffective finishing, while AIK’s effectiveness has compensated for their low quantity and allows them to aim for the top. Brommapojkarna’s performance is dismal here as well, and we can also note that IFK Göteborg worryingly combine low chance quantity with ineffective scoring.


Looking at defensive effectiveness we see how Hammarby are actually quite poor, proving the point that their success is mostly down to their impressive attack. Malmö and Östersund look surprisingly bad as well, on par with bottom teams Sirius and Dalkurd. Had they defended better they would have gone into the summer break with far more confidence of a top 3 finish, and I don’t even want to think about how Hammarby would look if they get their defense in shape.

AIK is of course the master defenders, handling the few chances faced very effectively, as is Norling’s trademark. As we’ve seen though, they’ve done so by giving up some attacking ambition, relying more on effectiveness in front of goal. There could be a fine line between success and utter failure with this approach but I suspect AIK to be in the race for the title up until November.

Bottom placed Sirius look really poor defensively and as usual they are plagued by injuries as well. They’ve also had to start with their goalkeeping coach a few matches as their only fit goalkeeper was suspended after a cocaine-related offense, which certainly didn’t make things easier. Brommapojkarna’s defensive effectiveness look OK but they still face way too many chances to avoid being involved in the relegation battle.

Lastly, Örebro have dramatically improved their defense under new manager Axel Kjäll, going from around 7.5 chances faced per goal conceded last season, to almost 12 so far. They still face a lot of chances but defend these well, looking very much to have a deliberate strategy to defend the box and let the opposition bomb away from poorer chance locations.


Looking at the Expected goals scatter we see just how different Hammarby and AIK’s approaches are. Interestingly, this fits very well with the traditional values of the clubs with AIK focusing a lot on a solid defense looking for a controlled 1-0 win while Hammarby attack head on carefree, not minding conceding a goal or two as they can always score more if needed.

Besides the top 2 teams, there seems to be some clustering going on xG-wise. A group of 5 clubs including Malmö and Djurgården look to be in contention for a top 3 spot with average or better defenses and strong attacking, while a roughly average quartet are lead by Örebro. Lastly, we see how the bottom quartet is actually a quintet with Sundsvall also showing poor underlying performances in both ends of the pitch.


The clustering shows up when looking at Expected Goals Difference as well, also showing that Häcken is actually on par with AIK and that Östersund is slightly worse than the other top 3 contenders. Sirius are just bad.

How about a prediction then – will the main narratives continue or will Malmö regain their form and will Hammarby drop back to their former mediocrity? Who will be relegated? Well, even if I wanted to make a prediction, we’ve seen just a bit more than one third of the season so far and there’s still a lot to come, including a very interesting transfer window which could see most clubs look very different come mid August. The only thing I can say is that the remainder of the season could very well get even more interesting than what we’ve seen so far.

That’s it for now, but I will hopefully be back soon with an update on individual player performances.

This article was written with the aid of StrataData, which is property of Stratagem Technologies. StrataData powers the StrataBet Sports Trading Platform, in addition to StrataBet Premium Recommendations.

Allsvenskan 2018 Summer update

Allsvenskan 2017 Summary Part 2

Alright, after my last post discussing team performance for the 2017 season it’s now time to dig deeper into Stratagem‘s great dataset and have a look at individual players.

As usual, it’s important to remember that Stratagem collects chances, not shots and also this: only one chance per attacking play is recorded. So for example if a team forces a goalkeeper to a series of saves in a single attack, only the highest rated chance (or a goal if it was scored) is recorded – this of course makes much sense as you can only score a maximum of one goal per attack.

Another difference from most data collectors is that whenever a blocked or saved shot rebounds and leads to a new chance, Stratagem credits the original shooter with an assist for his part in ‘creating’ this new chance. It’s important to note though that this only happens if the rebound chance happens to be of a higher quality than the original chance or end up as a goal, due to the above rule of only one chance per attack.

Lastly, when it comes to minutes played I’ve taken some time to try to calculate it as correctly as possible to get a better look at players ‘true’ performance. Sites like Soccerway seems to set their maximum playing time per match to 90 minutes which is of course wrong as there’s usually a lot of injury time to consider, sometimes even in the first half. So for this post with injury time in both halves taken into consideration you’ll see players which have played more than 30 units of 90 minutes and this also means that most players will see their per90 stats slightly diminished.

All data is open play chances, i.e. penalties are excluded for this post.

But enough of that, let’s get to it and have a look at some numbers. As usual I’ll just throw some plots at you together with my spontane thoughts:


01Though sharing honors as the league top scorer at 14 with Magnus Eriksson, the moral winner is Norrköping’s Kalle Holmberg with 13 open play goals while 5 of Eriksson’s goals came from penalties. Eriksson’s 9 open play goals is still very impressive though, seeing him finish joint second together with a group of strong goalscorers, all forwards – while Eriksson has mainly been used in midfield in Özcan Melkemichel’s Djurgården.

Another impressive performance comes from AIK’s Nicolas Stefanelli who managed to reach 9 open play goals despite only arriving during the summer, resulting in him topping the league when it comes to goals scored per 90 minutes. Versatile Bjørn Paulsen‘s 8 goals are equally impressive as he’s been used in both central midfield and defence alongside his starts up front for Hammarby.

Tobias Hysén shows that he’s still to be reckoned with, producing the highest total xG in the league at age 35. I’ve been waiting for his performance to drop for some years now, will he surprise me again next season?

The lack of any real xG per 90 Wizard this season (besides Stefanelli, maybe) sees some surprising names break into the immediate top. Johan Bertilsson, Skhodran Maholli (though he enjoyed an initial strong start to his arrival at Sirius) and Linus Hallenius comes to mind. Impressive of course, but it should be noted that this Allsvenskan season has been lacking the strong goalscoring box-player poacher type like pasts seasons’ Kjartansson, Owoeri and Kujovic. Kalle Holmberg could’ve been that player but IFK Norrköping’s weak end to the season has certainly limited his output to more normal levels.

Eflsborg’s Issam Jebali was the end point of most chances for the season, but when playing time is taken into consideration, AIK’s Nicolas Stefanelli once again reigns supreme.

02Comparing goals and xG we see that Stefanelli’s output isn’t that much better than expected, he could very well be the real deal. Another interesting point is that Malmö’s captain Markus Rosenberg continues to underperform against xG.

03.pngLooking at how many chances players create and the average quality of those chances should give us at least some sense of their preferred attacking styles. We see here how most strong attacking players tend to cluster around an area of compromise between quality and quantity. In this group, Viktor Prodell, Johan Bertilsson, Henok Goitom and Mohamed Buya Turay tend to rely more on high quality chances (all above 0.20 xG per chance), while David Moberg-Karlsson and Stefanelli prefer to just rack up chance after chance, the latter with some respectable xG per chance as well.

Moses Ogbu is an extreme outlier with over 0.30 xG per chance, explained in part by the fact that he only took part in Sirius’ very strong first half of the season before getting injured. Still a very interesting player, his numbers would likely have dropped a bit had he been fit to play when Sirius struggled (including 7 straight losses) in the second half of the season.

Chance Creation

04.pngElfsborg’s Simon Lundevall provided most assist overall but taking playing time into account, IFK Norrköping’s Niclas Eliasson was Allsvenskan’s main creator this season. Racking up 11 assists in the first half of the season before leaving for Bristol City in the Championship, his departure effectively ended Norrköping’s top 3 ambitions.

Magnus Eriksson, Tobias Hysén and Nahir Besara‘s appearance in the Assists Top 10 really shows their versatility and huge importance to their teams’ overall attack.

Just like seen with goals above, some interesting and perhaps surprising names appear when we account for playing time. I certainly didn’t expected to see Sirius’ Elias Andersson or AFC Eskilstuna’s Andrew Fox here, but there you go.

Ken Sema‘s strong finish to the season saw him (besides earning a call-up to ‘Party-‘ Janne Andersson’s national team which beat Italy to advance to the World Cup) top the Expected Assists table at roughly 11, though 3 less than his actual output. Sema has also been performing well in Östersund’s Europa League campagin and is one of many players they’ll have to work hard to keep over the winter transfer window.

Nostalgic as I am, it’s certainly nice to see my boyhood hero Kim Källström racking up some strong numbers placing him in the Top 10 Assists and xA tables, as well as creating most chances in the league overall and 4th most when taking playing time into consideration.

05.pngComparing assists and xA we see how Niclas Eliasson has been outperforming his expected output (likely thanks to some effective scoring from Kalle Homberg) while Ken Sema has been underperforming. Lundevall is closer to his expected output.

06.pngJust like with the Attacking Styles, Player Chance Creation Styles are mostly clustered with a lot of creative players combining reasonable quality with quantity. Ken Sema, Elias Andersson and Yoshimar Yotún (who left Malmö for the MLS in the summer) are the extremes when it comes to creation volume, while Andreas Vindheim has created some very good chances for Malmö.

Attacking Production

07.pngBy combining goals and assists into Attacking Production we see that Besara was the most productive player when it comes to raw numbers, but when factoring in playing time, Stefanelli once again tops the table in both expected and actual output. Prodell has done well considering his playing time, as well as Malmö’s Alexander Jeremejeff who’s second behind Stefanelli in xG+A per 90 minutes.

Djurgården’s both wingers break into the Total Chance Production table, with Othman El Kabir joining Eriksson just below the top trio. Paulinho was the most productive attacking player though, creating over 5 chances per 90 minutes for Häcken.

08.pngLooking at actual and expected output, we see how most strong attacking players like Besara, Jebali, Homberg, Eriksson, Hysén and Stefanelli tend to perform close to what we can expected. Eliasson is again overperforming while Rosenberg is doing the opposite. Eric Larsson is worth a special mention here as he has produced some fine numbers for a fullback, with his underperformance coming largely from his teammates in Sundsvall underperforming on the chances he created for them.

09.pngSeperating Expected Goals and Expected Assists let us see how the attacking players specialise. Once again we see how this season has really lacked many strong specialist, with only Stefanelli and Sema really standing out on their ends. Most players tend to cluster somewhat here as well, combining creativity with being at the end of chances as well.

Player Profiles

As I now work with StrataData, I’d thought I’d do a total revamp of the popular player maps. The style is more or less shamelessly stolen from a range of other analysts, no names mentioned, and now also include Chance Creation Maps:

K. Holmberg_chanceAs mentioned earlier, Kalle Holmberg was this season’s strongest goalscorer, and from his Chance Map it’s easy to see why: he usually gets into some very good positions just in front of goal, with an average xG of 0.19 per chance. 13 open play goals is strong, but as I’ve also mentioned I think he could’ve done even better had IFK Norrköping’s performance not dropped (and Niclas Eliasson not left).

M. Eriksson_chanceM. Eriksson_creationOperating from Djurgården’s right wing, Magnus Eriksson was another strong goalscorer this season, though a bit more versatile as he also provided a lot of assists for his team. Mostly crosses from the right flank but also two shot rebounds. His Chance Map is a bit different from Holmberg’s with more chances outside the box, which is only natural as he’s after all a midfielder. Though attacking is certainly his main quality, Djurgården will also miss his work ethic, grit and competitiveness now that he’s left for the MLS.

T. Hysén_chanceT. Hysén_creationVeteran Tobias Hysén continues to be extremely important to IFK Göteborg’s attack. His Chance Map combines a lot of good chances inside the box with some poorer outside, some of them direct free kick. When it comes to Chance Creation he’s provided some crucial passing inside and into the box, as well as some corners and free kicks.

N. Besara_chanceN. Besara_creationÖrebro’s Nahir Besara was also extremely important to his team’s attack, combining some chances inside the box with a lot of shooting from outside, including one goal from a direct free kick. His creation numbers are boosted by three rebounds who turned into goals, otherwise it’s mostly corners and crosses into the box.

N. Stefanelli_chanceNicolás Stefanelli arrived at AIK at a crucial time this summer, with the team’s attack struggling during the first half of the season. The Argentinian took some time to adopt but slowly turned into to a real strong presence up front, scoring 9 goals from 14 starts. It will be very interesting indeed to see if he can continue his fine performance come the new season. As a Djurgården supporter, I sure hope not.

L. Hallenius_chanceLinus Hallenius is an interesting case that’s flown under at least my radar this season. With 7 goals and nearly 10 xG he’s done well for a struggling Sundsvall side that just barely managed to stay up. Most of his chances have been created by Eric Larsson, so it’ll be very interesting to see if Hallenius can continue his fine performance next season with the right back having left for champions Malmö.

S. Lundevall_creationElfsborg’s Simon Lundevall was the assist king this season at 12, with 4 of them coming from corners, curiously with some rather high xA values – 3 of them are above 0.30 xA. Maybe Elfsborg have some corner strong routine going on? Lundevall has also provided some long range passes on the left half of the pitch, which I guess is related to counter-attacking.

N. Eliasson_creationNiclas Eliasson’s strong first half of a season earned him a move abroad, and as mentioned earlier IFK Norrköping never really looked the same after that. Overperfoming, sure, but he did create some really good chances for his team with his precise crossing from both flanks.

K. Sema_creationKen Sema was another creation monster, racking up some really good chances with an average xA per chance of 0.18. It’s clear to see why, as most of his passes was either directly inside the box, or ending up in it – a direct consequence of Östersund’s heavily passing-oriented style of attack.

K. Källström_creationThough it stopped at just one season before he chose to end his career, Kim Källström’s long-awaited return to Djurgården was (despite some very inconsistent perfomances) instrumental in returning the team he once won the league with in two consecutive seasons at the start of the millenium, back to the top 3. When he was at his best this season, sitting back in his deep-lying playmaker role he dictated much of Djurgården’s attack with his quarter-back ‘Hail Mary’ style of long passing. Interestingly though, all his assists came from set pieces where he got more time to use his precise left foot.

E. Larsson_creationI mentioned Eric Larsson before and looking at his Chance Creation Map we see clearly how strong a player he is. From his right back position at struggling Sundsvall he produced 52 chances and well over 6 xA – more than most midfielders. Though his teammates only managed to score twice on these chances, with his move to Malmö I expect him to get a lot more assists next season.

That’s it, thank you for reading the whole piece. If you want to see any more Player Chance/Creation Maps, just let me know on Twitter.

This article was written with the aid of StrataData, which is property of Stratagem Technologies. StrataData powers the StrataBet Sports Trading Platform, in addition to StrataBet Premium Recommendations.

Allsvenskan 2017 Summary Part 2

Allsvenskan 2017 Summary

With the end of the Swedish football season I’m now on vacation, and thus have time to do some writing. I haven’t written anything for a while and have especially avoided football since I’m biased with my work involving taking bets on the Swedish leagues. If I say Team X is underrated and should have a good chance of picking up some points in the future, why would you believe me, when I profit from your losses? Once the new season starts I’ll likely crawl back under my rock again, but for now, let’s get to it: Allsvenskan 2017 Summary!

Before we start though, I’d like to point out two things: a) most of the graphics shown below are very much inspired by (or more or less copied from) the great Ben Mayhew at Experimental 361, and b) the data used is from my good friends at Stratagem, for which I used to cover Norwegian Eliteserien and collect stats watching matches. You’ll find more information about Stratagem and their products at the bottom of this piece.

So, Allsvenskan 2017 it is then. First let’s have a look at the final table, once again topped by Malmö who managed to defend their title from last season, making it their 5th since 2010.


To my own personal joy, Djurgården finally returned to the top 3 for the first time since 2007, grabbing the last European qualifier spot in the process. Much hyped Östersund also managed to climb from last season’s 8th place, at the same time adding a very impressive run in the Europa League. Häcken have also improved (with new manager Stahre now leaving for the MLS), while Norrköping, IFK Göteborg and Elfsborg have all dropped somewhat. Of the three newcomers, only Sirius managed to stay up, reaching an impressive 7th place after a strong spring and a weaker autumn. Besides Halmstad and AFC Eskilstuna, Jönköpings Södra were also relegated via play-off against the 3rd placed team in Superettan, Trelleborg.

Let’s dig deeper by looking at some scatterplots (note: as I now use data from Stratagem, shots have turned into chances as this is what they collect. For more info, read this blog by Dave Willoughby).


Right away we can see part of why Malmö have dominated the season, as they create far more chances than the rest while at the same time keeping a tidy defense and facing fewest chances in the league. There’s quite some distance to the other top teams and interestingly IFK Göteborg seems to have done better chance-wise than the table suggests.

At the other end of things, AFC Eskilstuna stands out as a really poor team with the lowest number of chances created coupled with the highest number of chances faced per match. Jönköpings Södra also stand out a bit, with quite low numbers on both scales indicating some very boring matches (which I can confirm).


Looking at attacking effectiveness  we see how the top teams were efficient with their many chances created, while bottom teams like Sundsvall and relegated Halmstad both struggled to create and to capitalise on their chances. A curious case is Elfsborg who were the most efficient scorers, needing less than 7 chances per goal, while at the same time failing to create enough chance volume to compete with the top teams.


When it comes to defensive effectiveness, AIK and Häcken really stands out with around 13 chances faced per goal conceded, compared to the league average just under 9. Followers of Allsvenskan won’t be surprised to see AIK in the top here as a tight defense has been a cornerstone of the club for a long time. Häcken though, have really been transformed from a care-free attacking-minded side under Peter Gerhardsson, to a more cynic and well-structured defensive side under departing (and former AIK manager) Mikael Stahre. It will be very interesting to see who replaces him and what direction the club will take in the future.

Another interesting point to make is that as affective as they are on the attack, Elfsborg are equally ineffective when defending. With the third most goals scored and most conceded, the Borås side have certainly been entertaining to watch this season.


When it comes to Expected Goals, champions Malmö are closely followed by AIK, with Östersund and Djurgården some distance away. AFC Eskilstuna and Elfsborg were the two poorest defenders with around 2 xG conceded per match. I wonder how Elfsborg would have done without their effective scoring?


Rating the teams by Expected Goal Difference sees really how close AIK were to Malmö, whose ability to win close matches seems to be a big factor in their title win this season. At the bottom AFC Eskilstuna clearly deserved to be relegated with the worst xG difference, as did Halmstad while Jönköpings Södra maybe deserved a better fate than to be relegated via play-off.

That’s it for now, next up I’m hoping to have a look at individual player’s performance.

This article was written with the aid of StrataData, which is property of Stratagem Technologies. StrataData powers the StrataBet Sports Trading Platform, in addition to StrataBet Premium Recommendations.

Allsvenskan 2017 Summary